Preseason Rankings
Arkansas Pine Bluff
Southwestern Athletic
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-11.6#332
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.9#209
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-7.0#330
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-4.6#318
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.2% 13.0% 4.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 16.0 15.9
.500 or above 14.6% 46.1% 14.3%
.500 or above in Conference 52.9% 82.1% 52.6%
Conference Champion 7.4% 15.6% 7.4%
Last Place in Conference 10.0% 1.7% 10.1%
First Four3.6% 10.9% 3.5%
First Round2.2% 7.6% 2.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego St. (Away) - 0.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 1.40.0 - 1.4
Quad 1b0.0 - 1.10.0 - 2.5
Quad 20.1 - 2.30.1 - 4.8
Quad 30.6 - 5.50.7 - 10.3
Quad 49.3 - 9.610.1 - 19.9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 45   @ San Diego St. L 59-81 1%    
  Nov 10, 2018 180   @ Colorado St. L 66-77 10%    
  Nov 17, 2018 104   @ Southern Illinois L 60-76 5%    
  Nov 19, 2018 154   @ Massachusetts L 64-76 9%    
  Nov 23, 2018 288   California Baptist L 68-73 34%    
  Nov 24, 2018 264   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 62-68 22%    
  Nov 27, 2018 36   @ Cincinnati L 53-76 1%    
  Dec 05, 2018 29   @ Texas Tech L 56-79 1%    
  Dec 08, 2018 177   @ UC Santa Barbara L 64-75 12%    
  Dec 20, 2018 132   @ North Texas L 62-76 7%    
  Dec 22, 2018 190   @ Missouri St. L 62-72 12%    
  Dec 29, 2018 192   @ Troy L 66-76 13%    
  Jan 05, 2019 344   Mississippi Valley W 72-70 67%    
  Jan 12, 2019 325   Alabama St. L 70-71 55%    
  Jan 14, 2019 349   Alabama A&M W 69-65 73%    
  Jan 19, 2019 343   @ Southern W 68-66 48%    
  Jan 21, 2019 346   @ Alcorn St. W 70-67 51%    
  Jan 26, 2019 243   Texas Southern L 71-78 37%    
  Jan 28, 2019 297   Prairie View L 71-75 47%    
  Feb 02, 2019 296   @ Grambling St. L 70-74 28%    
  Feb 04, 2019 335   @ Jackson St. W 64-63 41%    
  Feb 09, 2019 325   @ Alabama St. L 70-71 36%    
  Feb 11, 2019 349   @ Alabama A&M W 69-65 54%    
  Feb 16, 2019 343   Southern W 68-66 68%    
  Feb 18, 2019 346   Alcorn St. W 70-67 69%    
  Feb 23, 2019 243   @ Texas Southern L 71-78 20%    
  Feb 25, 2019 297   @ Prairie View L 71-75 29%    
  Mar 02, 2019 296   Grambling St. L 70-74 45%    
  Mar 04, 2019 335   Jackson St. W 64-63 61%    
  Mar 09, 2019 344   @ Mississippi Valley W 72-70 48%    
Projected Record 10.1 - 19.9 8.8 - 9.2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.1 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 7.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 2.9 3.3 1.9 0.4 0.1 9.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.6 3.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 10.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.1 3.7 1.0 0.1 12.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.0 5.1 3.2 0.6 0.0 12.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.0 5.2 2.7 0.4 0.0 11.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.8 4.7 2.6 0.4 0.0 11.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 3.0 3.9 1.8 0.2 0.0 9.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.3 2.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 8.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 1.5 1.6 1.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 6.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.8 1.7 2.9 4.6 7.2 8.5 10.2 11.3 10.9 10.6 9.0 8.0 6.2 4.2 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 87.8% 1.0    0.9 0.1
15-3 81.4% 1.9    1.3 0.5 0.0
14-4 49.8% 2.1    1.1 0.9 0.1 0.0
13-5 24.0% 1.5    0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0
12-6 5.6% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.4% 7.4 4.3 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 83.7% 83.7% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.4% 54.9% 54.9% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2
16-2 1.1% 39.7% 39.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7
15-3 2.3% 28.0% 28.0% 16.0 0.0 0.6 1.7
14-4 4.2% 23.3% 23.3% 16.0 0.0 0.9 3.3
13-5 6.2% 12.7% 12.7% 16.0 0.0 0.8 5.4
12-6 8.0% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 0.5 7.4
11-7 9.0% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.2 8.8
10-8 10.6% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 10.5
9-9 10.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 10.9
8-10 11.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.2
7-11 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 10.2
6-12 8.5% 8.5
5-13 7.2% 7.2
4-14 4.6% 4.6
3-15 2.9% 2.9
2-16 1.7% 1.7
1-17 0.8% 0.8
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 3.9 95.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%